Research

Generations: Demographic Trends in Population and Workforce (Quick Take)

Mar 02, 2021

GLOBAL

The World’s Population is Aging

People between the ages of 15 and 24 make up almost 21% of the world’s working-age population.1

  • Only 36% of people (429 million) in this age group are employed.2

There will be more people over age 55 than children under 15 by 2035 and more people over 55 than people under 25 by 2080.3

By 2030, only 38.8% of the global population will be 24 years old or younger, down from 41% in 2020.4

  • This can be explained by a decrease in fertility worldwide5 along with a population that is growing older.6

ASIA-PACIFIC

About 24% of Asia’s Population is Under 15 Years Old7

By 2025, Generation Z will account for a quarter of the population of the Asia-Pacific region.8

  • The population is also aging. One in four people (about 1.3 billion) in this region will be 60 years or older by 2050.9

CANADA

Over the Next Several Decades, the Increase of Canada’s Population Over Age 65 Will Place Pressure on a Shrinking Working-Age Population10

The ratio of Canada’s working-age population to seniors continues to drop.11

  • In 1996, the ratio of younger workers (aged 25-34) to older workers (over 55) was 2.7 to 1. By 2018, this had dropped to a one-to-one ratio.12
  • An increase in women entering the workforce helped to mitigate this trend—particularly in healthcare, law, and financial services.13

Canada has seen its largest increase in seniors in 70 years as of the 2016 Census.14

  • According to various labour force projections, the number of seniors in the population could increase from 17.2% in 2018 to between 21.4% and 29.5% in 2068.15
    • This rise in the number of seniors would peak between 2018 and 2030, when all Baby Boomers would reach age 65.16
  • In the last 30 years, the median age in Canada has increased from 32.9 to 40.9.17

EUROPE

Europe’s Population Aged 80 Years and Older Is Expected to More Than Double by 2100

The European Union’s (EU-27) population of those aged 80 years or older is projected to increase from 5.8% in 2019 to 14.6% in 2100.18

  • The adult population of retirement age (65 years or older) will make up 31.3% of the EU’s population by 2100, compared to 20.2% in 2019.19
    • In 2019, there were fewer than three working-age people for every person 65 and older. By 2050, this ratio is expected to drop below two-to-one.20
  • Although reaching retirement age, adults are staying in the labor force longer.21
Meanwhile, Europe’s Share of Young People is Rapidly Declining22

The percentage of young people (ages 0-29) among the total EU population dropped from 38.1% in 1999 to less than a third (31.8%) in 2019.23

UNITED STATES

Millennials Account for Over a Third of the US Labor Force24
  • In 2016, Millennials became the largest generation in the United States labor force.25
  • Generation Z has started working, but in 2018 a lower percentage of teens and young adults were in the labor force compared to previous generations.26
    • Only 18% of teens (15-17) were working, compared to 27% of Millennials and 41% of Gen Xers of comparable ages.27
    • This could partly be explained by increased time spent in education.28
Despite the Increase in Millennials’ Representation, the Overall US Population Continues to Grow Older29

The population of older Americans is expected to more than double between 2014 and 2060.30

  • All racial and ethnic demographic categories in the US saw a rise in median age from 2010 to 2019.31
  • By 2030, 1 in 5 US residents will be at retirement age.32
  • A majority of Boomers were still in the labor force in 2018.33

The population of working-age adults is expected to decrease by 5% by 2060.34

The Most Recent Generations are Increasingly More Diverse

Immigration has contributed to the diversity of the US’s younger population.35

  • Millennials are increasingly likely to be foreign-born with a first language other than English.36
  • A higher proportion of Millennials (38%) and Gen Zers (48%) are identifying as a race or ethnicity other than non-Hispanic White.37
  • Gen Z is predicted to be majority non-White by 2026.38

LEARN MORE

NOTE: Generation names and age spans are defined somewhat differently depending on country and/or region. Roughly speaking, the following generation names and age spans are considered “global” generations:39

Baby Boomers: 1946–1964
Generation X: 1965–1980
Millennials: 1981-1996
Generation Z: After 1996

How to cite this product: Catalyst. Generations—Demographic trends in population and workforce: Quick Take. (March 2, 2021).

  1. World employment and social outlook – Trends 2020. (2020). International Labour Organization.
  2. World employment and social outlook – Trends 2020. (2020). International Labour Organization.
  3. Harasty, C. & Ostermeier, M. (2020). Population ageing: Alternative measures of dependency and implications for the future of work. International Labour Organization.
  4. United Nations database – World population prospects 2019 [Data set]. (n.d.). United Nations.
  5. Secon, H. (2021, January 25). How many people are in the world? LiveScience.
  6. Ageing. United Nations.
  7. UNFPA Asia-Pacific Regional Office (APRO). (2021). Addressing population ageing in Asia and the Pacific region: A life-cycle approach. UNFPA.
  8. Kim, A., McInerney, P., Smith, T. R., & Yamakawa, N. (2020, June 29). What makes Asia-Pacific’s Generation Z different? McKinsey & Company.
  9. UNFPA Asia-Pacific Regional Office (APRO). (2021). Addressing population ageing in Asia and the Pacific region: A life-cycle approach. UNFPA.
  10. Population projections: Canada, provinces and territories, 2018 to 2068. (2019, September 17). Statistics Canada.
  11. Study: Occupations with older workers. (2019, July 25). Statistics Canada.
  12. Study: Occupations with older workers. (2019, July 25). Statistics Canada.
  13. Study: Occupations with older workers. (2019, July 25). Statistics Canada.
  14. Age and sex, and type of dwelling data: Key results from the 2016 census. (2017, May 3). Statistics Canada.
  15. Population projections: Canada, provinces and territories, 2018 to 2068. (2019, September 17). Statistics Canada.
  16. Population projections: Canada, provinces and territories, 2018 to 2068. (2019, September 17). Statistics Canada.
  17. Table 17-10-0005-01 (formerly CANSIM 051-0001): Population estimates on July 1st, by age and sex [Data set]. (n.d.). Statistics Canada.
  18. Population structure and ageing. (2020, October). Eurostat.
  19. Population structure and ageing. (2020, October). Eurostat.
  20. Ageing Europe – statistics on population developments. (2021, February). Eurostat.
  21. Ageing Europe – statistics on working and moving into retirement. (2021, February). Eurostat.
  22. Data for 1999 excludes Croatia.Being young in Europe today – demographic trends. (2021, February). Eurostat.
  23. Being young in Europe today – demographic trends. (2021, February.). Eurostat.
  24. Desilver, D. (2019, August 29). 10 facts about American workers. Pew Research Center.
  25. Desilver, D. (2019, August 29). 10 facts about American workers. Pew Research Center.
  26. Parker, K. & Igielnik, R. (2020, May 14). On the cusp of adulthood and facing an uncertain future: What we know about Gen Z so far. Pew Research Center.
  27. Parker, K. & Igielnik, R. (2020, May 14). On the cusp of adulthood and facing an uncertain future: What we know about Gen Z so far. Pew Research Center.
  28. Parker, K. & Igielnik, R. (2020, May 14). On the cusp of adulthood and facing an uncertain future: What we know about Gen Z so far. Pew Research Center.
  29. 65 and older population grows rapidly as Baby Boomers age. (2020, June 25). United States Census Bureau.
  30. Colby, S.L. & Ortman, J.M. (2015, March 3). Projections of the size and composition of the U.S. population: 2014 to 2060. United States Census Bureau.
  31. 65 and older population grows rapidly as Baby Boomers age. (2020, June 25). United States Census Bureau.
  32. Older people projected to outnumber children for first time in U.S. history. (2019, October 8). United States Census Bureau.
  33. Fry, R. (2019, July 24). Baby Boomers are staying in the labor force at rates not seen in generations for people their age. Pew Research Center.
  34. Colby, S.L. & Ortman, J.M. (2015, March 3). Projections of the size and composition of the U.S. population: 2014 to 2060. United States Census Bureau.
  35. Frey, W.H. (2021, January 11). What the 2020 census will reveal about America: Stagnating growth, an aging population, and youthful diversity. Brookings.
  36. New Census Bureau statistics show how young adults today compare with previous generations in neighborhoods nationwide. (2014, December 4). United States Census Bureau.
  37. Parker, K. & Igielnik, R. (2020, May 14). On the cusp of adulthood and facing an uncertain future: What we know about Gen Z so far. Pew Research Center.
  38. Parker, K. & Igielnik, R. (2020, May 14). On the cusp of adulthood and facing an uncertain future: What we know about Gen Z so far. Pew Research Center.
  39. Depending on the source, the names of the generations and the dates they were born between tends to vary. One study cites Baby Boomers as being born between 1945-1964; Generation X between 1965-1979; and Millennials (aka Generation Y) between 1980-1991. [Krywulak, T. & Roberts, M. (2009). Winning the “generation wars” – making the most of generational differences and similarities in the workplace. The Conference Board of Canada.] Another study lists Baby Boomers as born between 1943-1960; Generation X between 1961-1981; and Millennials after 1982. [Gelston, S. (2008). Gen Y, Gen X and the Baby Boomers: Workplace generation wars. CIO.] Another study cites Generation X as being born between 1965-1980; Millennials between 1981-1996; and Generation Z (or the Post-Millennial generation) after 1996. [The generations defined. (2018). Pew Research Center.] Other studies show the start of Generation Z being born after 1996. [Bromwich, J.E. (2018, January 31). We asked Generation Z to pick a name. It wasn’t Generation Z. The New York Times; Crowcroft, O. (2019, August 8). Europe’s fintech startups target Generation Z. Sifted.].