Futureproofing your organization: Scenario planning with a critical inclusion lens

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1. Assemble a team that represents a balanced cross-section of your organization.
   • Convene employees from across functions, levels, and demographics.
     
     
2. Set conversation ground rules.
   • Embrace unlearning — the relaxing of assumptions and beliefs to set aside the typical way of doing something. This enables the consideration of new and innovative approaches.
     • Consider the limits of current knowledge.
     • Use this opportunity to reset and refresh any approaches, policies, and practices that are not attaining their intended goals.
   • Practice stretches of the imagination.
     • Strive for aspirational desired future outcomes.
   • Promote expressions of difference.
     • Actively invite and encourage varied and unconventional viewpoints.²
     • Designate a noble adversary whose role is to challenge majority thinking and consider alternate viewpoints and realities.
       
       
3. Brainstorm scenarios.
   • Brainstorm scenarios of concern and place them on a grid based on likelihood and impact.
   • Scenarios could be:

     • Event-driven: A new law or regulation is passed that requires new compliance and/or disproportionately and negatively impacts a particular demographic group; a new political regime comes into power; a geopolitical conflict, extreme weather event, or major tragedy impacts employees and/or customers; etc.

     • Trend-based: The impact of AI proliferation; an aging population and shifting workplace demographics; etc.

     • Operational: The organization undergoes a merger that compromises the current inclusion strategy; budget cuts; etc.

       
       
       
4. Choose and describe a scenario.
   • Select one of the red scenarios from your grid.
   • In a few sentences, summarize your selected scenario, detailing key implications for your organization's inclusion efforts (e.g., does this scenario disproportionately impact a particular demographic group or change your organization's ability to sustain a fair and respectful workplace environment?).
     
     
5. Describe the desired future state at your organization, given the selected scenario.
   • List potential positive organizational implications of the best imaginable future. How might revenue be impacted? How might the employee experience, productivity, and innovation change? Would organizational reputation be affected? How might these changes exemplify your organization's inclusive values?
     
     
6. Describe the worst-case future that is possible, given the selected scenario.
   • List potential negative organizational implications of the worst-case scenario. Consider how they would harm your organization financially, legally, reputationally, or otherwise, and how they might conflict with your organizational values.
     
     
7. Consider external forces, uncertainties, and assumptions.
   • Collectively reflect upon and document the underlying assumptions that are driving your scenario planning. Consider how your organization’s inclusion goals may be affected by individual biases, organizational precedents, and beliefs about the impact of external political, economic, social, technological, legal, and environmental (PESTLE) forces.
     
     
8. Backcast for your desired future state.
   • Reflect backward from the ideal future to identify the policies and practices needed to achieve your organization’s desired outcomes.
     
     
9. Backcast for your worst-case future state.
   • Reflect backward from the undesirable future state to consider the policies and practices that are likely to lead to negative outcomes your organization wants to avoid.
     
     
10. Create an action plan.
    • Review the policies and practices identified during backcasting to create an action plan that moves your organization toward desired outcomes while avoiding worst-case outcomes and remaining responsive to future changes. The plan should include a clear list of actions required by team members across levels, roles, and functional areas.

Red scenario identified in grid

The legal, political, and social landscape around diversity, equity, and inclusion shifts, putting pressure on organizations and leaders to back away from initiatives related to talent and culture.

Scenario description

The organization is discussing whether and how to modify its talent and culture efforts given the current legal, political, and social environment, especially in the United States. Some decision-makers are considering dramatic rollbacks to efforts to build an inclusive workplace, such as supports for employee wellbeing, efforts to broaden talent applicant pools, and transparent communication about organizational changes and decision-making. Others are more concerned about organizational risks that accompany shutting down efforts to build an inclusive workplace.

Desired future state

Successfully navigate the current regulatory landscape and sociocultural and political scrutiny around diversity, equity, and inclusion while ensuring a workplace where all employees can belong, contribute, and thrive.

Potential outcomes:

The organization continues to build a workplace that is inclusive. The result is increased innovation,³ team problem-solving,⁴ wellbeing,⁵ organizational commitment,⁶ engagement,⁷ psychological safety,⁸ job satisfaction,⁹ coworker supportiveness,¹⁰ perception that the organization is fair,¹¹ and ability to balance work-life demands¹² — which can all help retain valuable talent and benefit the bottom line. Organizational reputation benefits through being recognized by employees and peers as skillfully weathering PESTLE dynamics.

Worst-case future state

Efforts to build a diverse, equitable, and inclusive workplace are shut down or meaningfully dialed back due to organizational decision-making or a lack of scenario planning. This results in an increase in traditional discrimination lawsuits, leading to costly damage to organizational functioning, reputation, and ability to recruit and retain a talented workforce, and it negatively impacts the bottom line.

Potential outcomes:

Misalignment across global markets,¹³ increased discrimination¹⁴ and harassment¹⁵ (which can lead to costly lawsuits), turnover intentions,¹⁶ withdrawal,¹⁷ burnout,¹⁸ sleep problems,¹⁹ emotional tax,²⁰ and masculine anxiety²¹ — which all damage organizational culture and the bottom line.

Employees no longer feel comfortable raising concerns, resulting in a climate of silence that has costs for organizational functioning enables hostile, sexist, or and exclusionary behaviors to persist.²²

Discrimination lawsuits in the United States from failure to comply with Title VII of the Civil Rights Act of 1964.²³

Consider external forces, uncertainties, and assumptions

External forces and uncertainties:

• Complex, and often conflicting, directives and regulations across regions and markets.
• New legislation and/or executive orders are unclear and/or in legal limbo.
• Consumer sentiment in response to perceived shifts in support of diversity and inclusion initiatives.
• Organizational adaptability.
• Team job security.
• Potential for being targeted or called out on social media no matter what action is taken.
  
  

Assumptions or biases:

• Belief that no matter what, legal challenges to efforts to build inclusive workplaces are inevitable.
• A tendency to act quickly rather than sitting with uncertainty.
• Preference for sticking with the “tried and true” rather than trying something new and innovative.
• Desire to “stick to business” and not get involved in “social issues”; failing to recognize that inclusion is a business imperative.
• Risk aversion.
• Zero-sum thinking.
  
  

Backcast for desired future state

• We (an organization) established a clear communication strategy by determining who will communicate, what will be communicated, and how often updates will happen. We shared the information across multiple channels and organizational platforms, such as town halls, emails, and Q&A sessions.
• We developed strong, resilient leaders by maintaining programming aimed at boosting inclusive leadership skills, adaptability, and empathy.
• We were transparent with employees about efforts to build an inclusive workplace and highlighted how the underpinning principles and practices of inclusion are defined by basic human experiences that benefit all employees: being valued, trusted, authentic, and psychologically safe.²⁴
• We established and executed a strategy rooted in our values, emphasizing open access to opportunities and experiences of inclusion, wellbeing, and belonging for all, and focused on closing gaps to create a level playing field. This strategic approach enabled us to weigh risks while driving toward critical goals. Specifically:
  • We included everyone in gender partnership programming by ensuring, among other topics covered, that these efforts address the impact of gender stereotypes on men.
  • We took action to eliminate bias from efforts to find, recruit, retain, and develop top talent.
  • We maintained or expanded supports for all employees, such as flexible work schedules, parental leave benefits, and menopause support.
  • We continued to support ERGs, emphasizing that they are accessible to all.
  • We bolstered wellness programs that support mental health and work-life balance.

Backcast for worst-case future state

• We removed or dramatically cut policies and practices that help build a diverse, equitable, and inclusive workplace. Specifically:
  • We cut employee resource groups (ERGs).
  • We dialed back on gender partnership programming.
  • We removed all inclusive leadership and implicit bias training.
  • We halted celebrations of heritage months and other cultural programming.
  • We stopped measuring representation by gender, race, ethnicity, and other demographics across levels.
  • We removed inclusive leadership behaviors from performance reviews.
  • Pay equity audits were halted.
  • We dialed back flexible working options.
  • All leave benefits and supports for parents and breastfeeding employees that went above the minimum required by law were rolled back.

• Organizational leaders were not prepared to communicate to employees when decisions were made to alter messaging and programming.
• We did nothing and were targeted politically, backing us into a corner in which we felt compelled to end all diversity and inclusion initiatives.
  
  
  
  

Action plan

Senior leadership and people management

• Audit your overall inclusion strategy and examine any metrics to assess what’s working and what isn’t. Ensure the strategy links to organizational values and emphasizes open access to opportunities for all. Check that all initiatives, programs, or policies are rooted in data-backed best practices. Refresh and/or institute new metrics to enable comprehensive tracking and accountability to demonstrate the essential link between inclusion work and the organization’s overall success.
• Explain the “why” behind any organizational changes, not just the decisions themselves. Be transparent about what is known and what is still uncertain. If applicable, share data, research, or external factors influencing decisions. Link decisions to organizational values and long-term goals by leveraging the Values, Open, Close (VOC) framework. Communicate frequently and consistently. Set expectations for when and how updates will be delivered, even if there are no major updates.
• Communicate how all employees — including men — stand to benefit from gender equity efforts. Counter beliefs that gender equity only helps women by leveraging gender partnership and creating spaces where men are able to discuss their experiences. For example, breaking down rigid masculine stereotypes helps men in terms of increased psychological wellbeing and decreased burnout, sleep problems, and turnover intentions.²⁵
• If you are a current or prospective ERG executive sponsor, update your strategy for supporting employees.
• Demonstrate your commitment to being an adaptable and empathic leader by role modeling these skills in your communications and following through on those statements with policies and actions.
  
  

Human resources (HR)

• Ensure your leadership training incorporates tactical and practical skill-building for essential durable skills, like inclusive leadership behaviors, adaptability, and empathy.
• Implement practices for removing biased language from job postings and de-identifying resumes and applications. Use structured interview processes with clear and objective rating criteria. Regularly audit hiring outcomes to identify any areas where bias or unequal experiences may be occurring. Allow experience equivalence and remove unnecessary requirements to have a college degree.
• Build and communicate clearly defined competencies by level. Implement a process for career pathing and make it available to all employees regardless of role or level. Encourage two-way communication by creating safe spaces for employees to ask questions and share concerns. Use feedback mechanisms like anonymous surveys, listening sessions, or open office hours. Address concerns raised by employees and show how feedback is shaping actions.
• Conduct an ERG needs assessment. Ensure that all ERGs have an executive sponsor and that there is a process for ERGs to advise and influence organizational priorities.
• Ensure that employees have access to key supports that benefit their wellness and wellbeing, such as flexible work options, mental health benefits, parental leave, caregiving benefits, and menopause support.
  
  

Communications

• Ensure managers and executives are aligned on key messages behind organizational changes and strategic initiatives.
• Provide talking points or FAQs to help managers cascade information effectively to employees at all levels. Share the information across multiple channels and organizational platforms, such as town halls, emails, and Q&A sessions.
• Tailor communication to different employee demographics. Especially for global organizations, recognize that different teams may have different concerns, and ensure employees understand that strategic decisions and changes will be customized to meet local best practices and laws.

Keep the following practices in mind to ensure your organization remains at the forefront of inclusion throughout challenging times:

Identify cross-scenario policies and procedures.

• You may find that some policies and practices are showing up across the action plans for your scenarios. That’s great! Target these action steps to maximize impact.
  
  

Don’t overcomply.

• It’s essential that you consult with your legal department, together with HR and business leaders, to ensure that the actions you’re taking appropriately consider legal risk as well as talent and business risks, to avoid unnecessarily cutting back on efforts to build an inclusive workplace.
  
  

Use an approach that follows the Values, Open, Close (VOC) framework.

• Maintain and highlight your organizational values and how your decision-making aligns with them.
• Ensure that your programs and initiatives are open to all employees.
• Close opportunities and holes in the system that create an unequal playing field.
  
  

Don’t try to go it alone.

• Embrace communities of other organizations that are also committed to this work.